The Calm before the Storm? - January Real Estate Market Update

The news came out yesterday: Sales on the Toronto Real Estate Board in January were up 37% compared to the previous year. And while this is a significant jump on a year-over-year basis and a strong indicator that Buyers are finally back, a closer look shows that the market is not red hot - yet.

The average price in York Region in January was $1,210,705. That's 5.8% lower than 12 months ago and also lower than in December ($1,281,692). It's at the lowest since February of 2021.

(Data: TRREB Market Watch)

Aurora and Newmarket down

The average price point in Aurora was also lower than what we are used to: $1,198,012 in January reflects a 7.2% decrease compared to the previous month (Dec '23: $1,291,453) - and a 20% drop on a year-over-year basis (Jan '23: $1,498,266).

The average price in Newmarket was $1,130,770 - 3.3% lower than last year. East Gwillimbury ($1,234,793 / -11.5%) and Bradford ($1,021,595 / -5.8%) came also in lower than 12 months ago.

40+ offers on Newmarket Townhome

So what is happening? Sales are up, prices are down. And there are stories of multiple offers: A townhouse in Newmarket sold last week and received over 40 offers.

Everything under or around the 1-Million-Mark is flying off the shelves already. The $1-1.5m homes are moving very fast too and we're now also seeing homes over $2m selling when last fall they were sitting on the market.

Prediction: February Prices 10% up

Buyer confidence is back and we have shifted from a Buyer's Market to a balanced Market, most likely heading into a Seller's Market very soon. With 2023 being the slowest year in real estate in over two decades, many people that have been waiting are now back out looking - and buying. I believe activity will only increase from here on and February numbers will be up by 10%. As inventory is still fairly low, this could be a great window for Sellers.